How Prophecy Works
What is Prophecy?
Prophecy is a social prediction market game for friend groups. Create markets about anything — who's winning game night, will John strike out with that girl, who's going to be latest to the group hang — then put points behind your predictions. The best forecasters climb the leaderboard.
How do points work?
Every new account starts with 1,000 points. Points are play money — they have no real-world monetary value. Use them to bet on markets and climb the leaderboard. You earn more points by making predictions that are more accurate than the crowd.
Points cannot be purchased, sold, traded, or redeemed for anything of value. They exist solely for entertainment and bragging rights.
How does betting work?
Anyone can create a market with a question and a set of outcomes (Yes/No or multiple choice). When you bet, you set two things:
- Your probability estimate — what you think the odds are for each outcome
- Your stake— how many points you're putting behind your prediction (minimum 10)
The market's implied probabilityis the stake-weighted average of everyone's predictions. Bigger bets move the market more.
How is scoring calculated?
Prophecy uses relative Brier scoring— you're rewarded for being more accurate than the market at the time you bet, not just for being right.
Implied Probability
The market's consensus — each bettor's prediction weighted by their stake.
Relative Brier Delta
Positive δ means your prediction was closer to the truth than the market average when you bet — you “beat the market.”
Payout
Winners (positive δ) split the entire pool, weighted by their delta and stake. If nobody beats the market, everyone gets their stake back.
Market lifecycle
How does resolution work?
After the betting window closes and the resolution deadline passes, a voting period opens. Every bettor on the market can vote for the outcome they believe actually happened.
When a majority of voting bettors agree on an outcome, the market resolves and payouts are distributed automatically. If no clear outcome can be determined, the market may be voided and all stakes returned.
YC W26 markets: The YC Demo Day company markets are resolved by the Prophecy team based on publicly available funding announcements, not by community vote.
Who are we?
Follow us on @make_prophecy
Legal & Responsible Use
Is this gambling?
No. Prophecy is a social entertainment and forecasting platform. All betting uses play-money points that have no real-world monetary value. Points cannot be purchased, sold, traded, or redeemed for cash or anything of value.
Prophecy is not a gambling service, casino, exchange, or broker. We are not registered with or regulated by the CFTC, SEC, or any state gambling commission. We do not process, hold, or facilitate any real-money transactions.
Do I need to be a certain age?
Yes. You must be at least 18 years old (or the age of majority in your jurisdiction) to use Prophecy. By creating an account, you confirm that you meet this requirement.
What markets are not allowed?
Markets must not:
- Target specific non-public individuals for harassment, humiliation, or doxxing
- Involve illegal activity or encourage illegal behavior
- Be about minors' personal lives
- Promote violence or harm
Prophecy reserves the right to void any market and suspend any account that violates these guidelines.
What data do you collect?
Prophecy collects your name, email address, and prediction activity (markets created, bets placed, votes cast). We use this data solely to operate the platform and display leaderboards.
We do not sell your data to third parties. Aggregate market data (implied probabilities, bet counts) may be displayed publicly. Individual bet details are governed by each market's visibility setting (Open, Anonymous, or Anonymous Until Resolved).
You can request deletion of your account and personal data by contacting us. Active market bets will be retained as “Deleted User” for market integrity, but all personally identifiable information will be removed.
Last updated: March 2026. See our full Terms & Conditions for details.